Playoff projections – Sept. 5

Latest playoff projections based on games remaining and point per game average as of Week 25:

Play-in matchups would be:

Wild Card 1 (Real Salt Lake) vs. Wild Card 4 (DC United)
Wild Card 2 (Colorado Rapids) vs. Wild Card 3 (Houston Dynamo)

The lowest remaining seed from the play-in would get the LA Galaxy; the other would get Columbus, while Seattle would face FC Dallas in the West and Sporting KC would play Philadelphia in the East in a two-leg semi.

This is just a projection based on past performance and games remaining; teams could get on a good run of form and change their destiny.

5 Comments

• 
  Keith September 6, 2011 at 1:03 am

  If I am RSL, I’m not sure I really want to catch Dallas or Seattle. If they finish 4th in the West, the will end up facing WC4 (worst playoff team) at Rio Tinto, E1 (probably #6 team in the league in a home and home) and then E2 or E3 in the conference finals. They avoid the top 5 teams in the league completely until MLS Cup. This situation is just further proof that we just need one table, seed the teams as they fall and good luck to everyone.

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  • 
    Joao September 6, 2011 at 7:06 pm

    Actually, it proves nothing, and you’ve made some bold assumptions. You’re assuming E1 will end as #6, but they’re only 1 point behind #5, with 2 games in hand. E1 is likely to make it into the top 5. E2 also isn’t far behind with 1 game in hand.
    Also, the two tables and the two conference championships help create/enforce rivalries and sell tickets.

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    • 
      Keith September 12, 2011 at 11:27 pm

      My problem with the current system is that E1 is going to end up a good 20 points shy of LAG, yet have a much easier path through the playoffs as the top 3 teams in the league will be on the other side of the bracket. They are also going to get a bye in the first round when a team who plays the same balanced schedule and ends up with 10 points more than them has to play the first weekend because they are in a different fictional conference.

      If everyone plays the same schedule, why isn’t everyone just seeded into brackets evenly?

      By the way, this and every article on this site is based on assumptions. At this point in the year, you have to make some sort of assumptions to even write a comment. You made assumptions as well. Whether E1 ends up 5 or 6 is irrelevant as the top four teams are going to come out of the west, meaning I would much rather be W4 than W3 or W2. As W4 I avoid the top three teams in the league and get matched up with a team that has a worse record than me. If I end up W3 I am screwed, I play W2 and then W1, the two top teams in the league just to get to MLS Cup. That is a messed up system.

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      • 
        Joao September 13, 2011 at 6:06 pm

        This site makes predictions based on past statistics and I base my comments on this and other stat-based sites. The stats point at E1 ending as #5 and 12-13 points behind LAG. The only assumption I make is that future performance is likely to be similar to past performance. You say otherwise, without references, and that’s why your assumptions are bold.
        Now the real issue seems to me that you think the path to the final match will be unfairly easy for some teams, and unfairly difficult for others. I don’t think a “fair” solution exists and that the MLS should focus on making money to reinvest in marketing the league while providing existing fans with great games to watch and fantastic stories of underdogs achieving glory. I think the current system is a balanced approach to this.

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• 
  AJ September 9, 2011 at 12:18 pm

  Thank you Joao. Honestly, if NYRB don’t make it to the playoffs, there maybe one more manager firing.

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