Browsing articles from "August, 2011"

Playoff projection based on PPG (Update)

Aug 26, 2011   //   by sttadmin   //   Blog, Playoffs, Statistics  //  No Comments

Latest projection for the MLS Cup playoff qualifiers based on points per game average and league games remaining (as of Wednesday’s Timbers-Chivas USA game):

1 Los Angeles Galaxy (W1) 66.68
2 Seattle Sounders (W2) 58.84
3 FC Dallas (W3) 56.20
4 Columbus Crew (E1) 54.40
5 Real Salt Lake 53.16
6 Colorado Rapids 51.64
7 Sporting Kansas City (E2) 48.96
8 Philadelphia Union (E3) 48.20
9 Houston Dynamo 45.80
10 New York Red Bulls 41.84
10 Portland Timbers 41.84
12 DC United 41.32
13 Chivas USA 40.52
14 San Jose Earthquakes 34.00
15 Chicago Fire 32.64
16 New England Revolution 30.04
17 Toronto FC 28.95
18 Vancouver Whitecaps 24.48

 

New York and Portland are only separated by goal differential.  The teams in red are either virtually eliminated based on form, or would need a tremendous run down the stretch and teams ahead of them stumbling badly in order to get in.  For example, if San Jose averaged two points per game from here on out, they’d only be 1.2 points ahead of 10th place New York and Portland’s projected end-of-season point total right now, and I don’t see either of them earning less than that with eight games remaining for both.  The Earthquakes haven’t averaged two points per game for a nine game stretch this season.

That makes it a four-team battle for the last playoff spots. DC United and Chivas USA are the last two teams on the outside looking in.

DC United’s remaining opponents:

Portland Timbers (H)
Chivas USA     (A)
Seattle Sounders     (A)
Chivas USA     (H)  
Real Salt Lake     (H)
Philadelphia Union     (A)
Columbus Crew     (A)
Vancouver Whitecaps     (A)
Chicago Fire     (H)
Kansas City     (H)

Chivas USA’s remaining opponents:

Real Salt Lake     (H)
D.C. United     (H)
Chicago Fire     (A)
D.C. United     (A) 
Toronto FC     (H)
Philadelphia Union     (H)
LA Galaxy     (A)
Seattle Sounders     (H)

There’s quite a few six-pointers in those games remaining, with Chivas a percentage point or two tougher schedule than United.  Bottom line, watch any game these two, plus New York and Portland play from here on out.  They’re bound to be intense, especially the two games DC and Chivas play against each other.

 

Playoff Projections based on PPG

Aug 17, 2011   //   by sttadmin   //   Blog, Playoffs, Statistics  //  3 Comments

This is a table of projected finish based on points per game average and games remaining for each team (as of Week 22):

1 Los Angeles Galaxy (W1)  65.28
2 FC Dallas (W2) 58.48
3 Seattle Sounders (W3) 57.12
4 Real Salt Lake  55.68
5 Columbus Crew (E1) 52.4
6 Colorado Rapids  52.32
7 Philadelphia Union (E2) 50.28
8 DC United (E3) 46.32
9 Sporting Kansas City 44.3
10 Houston Dynamo  43.9
11 Chivas USA 42.5
12 New York Red Bulls   42.16
13 Portland Timbers 38.43
14 San Jose Earthquakes 35.4
15 Toronto FC  30.04
16 New England Revolution  29.7
17 Chicago Fire 29.57
18 Vancouver Whitecaps 25.5

 

Based on this projection, New York does not make the playoffs, DC United is the third seed out of the East, and the makeup of the playoffs is evenly divided among Eastern and Western Conference teams at five a piece.  We’ll see how this holds.