The Mendoza Line
Note: This post has nothing to do with Columbus’ Andres Mendoza.
Wikipedia defines baseball’s Mendoza Line as:
…an informal term used in baseball for the threshold of incompetent hitting. The Mendoza Line is said to occur at .200, and when a position player’s batting average falls below that level, the player is said to be ‘below the Mendoza Line.’ It is often thought of as the offensive threshold below which a player’s presence in Major League Baseball cannot be justified despite his defensive abilities.
If you’ve followed this site over the years, MLS: Setting the Table has its own version of The Mendoza Line. It is the points per game average that gets you into the playoffs. Since the 2008 season, here are the teams that just barely squeaked into the MLS Cup playoffs and their points per game average :
- 2008: 1.30 PPG (New York) – 39 points in 30 games; MLS Cup finalist
- 2009: 1.33 PPG (Real Salt Lake) – 40 points in 30 games; MLS Cup Champion
- 2010: 1.53 PPG (San Jose) – 46 points in 30 games; MLS Cup semifinalist
If ten teams had been allowed in the playoffs last season as they are this season, then Kansas City would have been in with a PPG of 1.20. With 34 games on the schedule this season, a team would have to earn at least 41 points to average the 1.20 that KC did in 2010.
During the season, keep an eye on that column in the table. With games in hand you can’t just go by the point total. If your club is above 1.20, you’re on pace to make the playoffs. If not, it could be a depressing November.
Did you notice that the example clubs above made it to at least the semifinal?
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What a great post! And it goes to show how badly the MLS Cup will be diluted this year. I don’t even think of it as playoffs; it’s a totally different Cup tournament to me and the Supporter’s Shield is the prime trophy.
THANK YOU!!!
You can think that all you want, but there’s only one trophy that puts a star on your shirt.
I agree. MLS Cup will be very “diluted”. Supporter’s Shield is the real rating and judgement of the best and worst teams in MLS. The Cup is just a short second season, meaningless; but the American way. Supporter’s Shield!
I like your Mendoza Line logic. Let’s see if it works out this season.
I disagree with the “diluted” stuff. The new format just adds a sort of “wildcard weekend” to the previous format, forcing the wildcard teams to fight each other for a quarter-finals spot instead of just being handed it like in previous years. And don’t get me started about how important wildcards are when we have two lop-sided conferences.
As for the Shield, the regular season is just a warm-up and rehearsal for the cup. That’s where the pressure affects the players and they have to give it their all. The Shield is a shooting range competition while the cup is a real battle.
I understand why some people (maybe most people) would prefer the shield and prefer to use statistics and averages to prove their team’s supremacy. I’m an engineer and I try to explain the world using math and statistics too… but we’re talking about sports here. I’ll take a passionate triumphant win for the Cup over the Shield any day. That’s how I’m entertained… math just reminds me of work.
The MLS Cup this year is basically going to be like it was 2 years ago: an even number of entries that’s just over half. It’s not nearly as diluted as it was during the 10-team eras, when it really WAS a mark of shame to not qualify.
@Joao
“As for the Shield, the regular season is just a warm-up and rehearsal for the cup. That’s where the pressure affects the players and they have to give it their all. The Shield is a shooting range competition while the cup is a real battle.”
sorry to hear you feel this way … i assume you don’t pay much attention to the ‘warm-up’, you know, rehearsals being of not much importance and there is no need to give it your all,etc.
even as a north american, i find this typical north american perspective on regular season vs playoffs to be rather a sad commentary … what is wrong with thinking of it as two competitions, a league championship and a cup? why the need to diminish one and promote the other?
@lobo
Rehearsing is very important. I never said it wasn’t. You just made that up and pinned it on me with your unfounded assumption.
I make it to all of my team’s “rehearsal” games, because they are important. But my team winning the shield wouldn’t mean nearly as much to me as them winning the cup. Building on my earlier metaphor, practising for and winning a shooting competition is rewarding and an accomplishment, but returning from a battle with my life and possibly a medal would be better.